Populism, 1896/2012: We have Seen This Before

The TEA party, a conservative and (supposedly) populist uprising, is putting pressure on the Republican party to make massive spending cuts and not agree to raise the debt ceiling. Their rhetoric is forcing many mainstream Republicans between the extreme wing of their party and the possibility of an international financial catastrophe.

And....

We are heading into an election season. The choice that the Republicans make on the debt and the debt ceiling will reverberate. The tea party has vowed to "make an example" of those Republicans who vote to raise the debt ceiling.

But...we've seen this before.

Populist uprisings and a divided party were highly contentious issues during the election of 1896. After the Civil War, small Southern and Western farmers faced a serious economic downturn as the southern economy transitioned away from its dependence on slave labor. While many southerners fought on the side of the Confederacy, most were not rich enough to own slaves. A group founded by agrarian interests called the Farmer's Alliance(AKA the Order of the Patrons of Husbandry/The Grange) combined with the Knights of Labor to form the Populist Party. They took control of the Kansas Legislature, elected the first Populist Senator and nominated James B Weaver for president in 1892 (won over 1 million votes).

In 1896, the Democrats, whose policies were most aligned with Populists, nominated William Jennings Bryan on a free-silver platform (amongst other things). The Populists split off into those who wanted to be integrated into the Democratic Party and the "middle-road" people who wanted to continue with their third party status. They had a separate convention and also nominated William Jennings Bryan, but with a different Vice President. Bryan and the Democrats absorbed some of the Populist ideas into their party platform and rejected others, alienating the "middle-road" segment. The remaining Populists split the vote leading to a clear victory for Republican William McKinley.

So, why the history lesson?

While the TEA party does not represent the type of populist ideals that the Populist party ran on, they do act as a force of disunity within a major party heading into an election. Like the TEA Party, the Populists represented a plethora of interests. Some supported going back to the gold standard (Gold Bugs), some wanted money to be backed by Silver (Silverites), many were anti-corporate (heavier regulation of the rail industry over predatory pricing on grain elevators) and some wanted more government intervention to help farmers. All of these forces were difficult to reconcile into a coherent party platform. This was exacerbated by the split between Gold Bugs and Silverites and integrationists and middle-roaders.

The TEA party is made up of many elements of political conservatism. Some are for the legalization of drugs and the termination of wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya (Libertarians, or Ron Paulites). Then, there are the religious conservatives who are fervently anti-choice and anti-gay marriage. The Moral conservatives (religious) tend to clash with Libertarians on the wars, legalization of drugs, abortion, religion and the role of the government. Libertarians would rather see cuts across the board (See the Paul family) and religious conservatives would like to see the government be a moral crusader. All of these forces will act upon the mind-set of many mainstream Republicans and push them farther right. This might be safe during the debt ceiling debate, but the platform will be difficult to articulate once 2012 rolls around.

If Barack Obama wants to win in 2012, he must exploit this division. McKinley injected humor into Bryan's dramatic "cross of gold" speech, which acted to further divide the Democratic party. He exploited their divisions and stood on a very simple, digestible platform of American exceptionalism, expanding overseas markets and conservative monetary policies. Obama must inject some levity into the TEA party platform (as he did with the Birther issue) and have a consistent and simple theme for his Campaign - American ingenuity. This will contrast with the Republican party, which will have to harmonize conflicting perspectives while trying to cow-tow to an extreme minority whose shelf life is coming to an end.