As Congress comes back from August recess, the president will be swamped with the lion’s share of problems that he has inherited from the last administration, and backlash from drastic changes that he intends to put through. Here is a brush up on some of the things we will be seeing in the media and the type of debates we will see in Congress:
Healthcare – This is the 300 pound gorilla in the room. Coming back from an August break filled with angry, gun-toting protesters decrying everything from birth certificates to socialism, healthcare will certainly be a hard sell. My belief is that people are angry, not because they actually know what they are talking about in regards to the many incarnations of the healthcare bill, but because they have not seen a quick fix to our economic situation, and blame the biggest thing they can see: The Government. Over healthcare, the teabaggers, the 2nd amendment Phoenix protesters and the “Obama-as-Joker-Socialist” school of thought all have eaten up the fast-food media business, whose CEOs are Mr. Beck, Mr. Limbaugh and Mr. Hannity. They give them fast, nicely packed buzzwords and emotional anti-government rhetoric to chew on and spit out, so they don’t have to think for themselves. The fact that a poll recently showed 6 into 10 white women are unsure about Obama’s presidential legitimacy is a little sad, seeing as that HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH HEALTHCARE!!! Obama is going to make a “Custards-Last-Stand” before a joint session on Wednesday, where he will reiterate his ideas of budget-neutrality, exchanges, a new market system for healthcare, no denial for preconditions and if need be, no public option. But, of course, this public option is the main target of those opposed to the bill, even though it is only one part of it, and is expendable. As an article this weekend said, healthcare is losing to ideology. The Regan-era “big government bad, private business good” is still a mainstay of American ideology, and if it means that many children, who have no control over their healthcare situation, will not be insured, then so be it. A victory, albeit a compromised one, will give the administration the OOMPH it needs to take on other problems, like Energy and Afghanistan. But, since the Republicans have made it a political strategy to defeat healthcare (yah, that’ll really make the country better, especially in time for Swine Flu Season), and have already rejected exchanges (Republican idea initially), it looks like healthcare might not win out to politicking.
The Energy Bill – Last we saw, the Energy bill passed the house, with a few Republican supporters and is now heading into the Senate. The forecast will be “cloudy with a high chance of compromise.” The bill coming out the Senate, if it passes, will mostly likely have more concessions for coal-burning states and more promise to bulk up on nuclear power. Some supporters of the bill have dropped off because they believe it will lose all of its power to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. My perspective is that it already has lost its power. The concessions given on the Cap and Trade program to petroleum and coal business has made Waxman-Markey as strong as paper in a hurricane. Of course, there is the Carbon Tax, which is one of the most economically sound ideas, but not during a recession. Ignoring the fact that the bill would cost about 40-50 cents/day/family in energy increases, the main opposition has been the increase in price of energy bills. And, at a time when the forecast has been a $9,000,000,000,000 deficit over the next 10 fiscal years, many people are not happy with spending more on their side, or spending more on the government side. This goes for healthcare as well. If this bill passes, it will be a symbolic gesture for the upcoming meeting in Copenhagen. If it does not pass the Senate, it will be a political defeat that Obama will not recover from, both internationally and nationally. This coupled with a defeat of healthcare might spell a turnover in 2010 in Congress (pretty much a give-in) and a possible one-term “flash-in-the-pan” for Obama. Of course, Secretary Chu, a Noble Prize Winning physicist knows that energy issues and global warming are the “low-hanging fruit” and must be dealt with. But, in a time of skepticism about global warming, and that the EPA might be put on “trial” (think Scopes Monkey Trial, 1920) to prove man-made global warming, we are in no position to accept a higher cost for the abuse we have done to the environment. But, of course, the objective evidence (recently arctic cores have shown a unaccounted rise in temperature that cannot be accounted for as an effect of cyclical climate cycles) is not enough for vocal naysayers, and their inability to think globally is a burden on the bill.
Afghanistan – Out 8 year war with the Taliban has “no end in sight.” Well, not exactly. Our top military advisors say at least 12-18 months. Fresh from his new post and a couple trips to Afghanistan, Gen McChrystal has given a clear and grim assessment. The situation is bad and it is getting worse. McChrystal is the new commander on the ground for the American and NATO forces. His top priority is to protect civilian lives, and through PR and assistance win the hearts and minds of the tribesman and the local populations. This kind of thinking was lacking during our foray into Vietnam, and can work in our favor. The problem facing Afghanistan is something that we saw in Vietnam, and led us to take drastic measures and actions that ultimately led, in part, to our withdrawal. That problem is the corrupt central government. In Vietnam, we instituted a Catholic, Western-educated leader in the south with a population that was mostly peasants, uneducated and Buddhist. This leader, Ngo Dinh Diem, persecuted Buddhists, made himself inaccessible to the populace and looked down upon his own people. This led to high levels of desertion in the ARVN in the south, more instances of guerilla insertion of Vietcong in the South and a united front in the North. This also led to his assassination and a series of inept military leaders. In Afghanistan, during the Bush administration an initial successful election gave us President Hamid Karzai. But, the government has been plagued by corruption, with citizens being shaken down for bribes by anyone from police officers to judges. The utility system is lacking, the government oversight is weak and Karzai is often stubborn when given advice. Even the Taliban has been able to set up visible political presence in smaller towns and districts. Obama will have to deal with the rising death toll, the resurgence of the Taliban and corrupt government. The fact that 450 polling places have been disqualified during this recent election testifies to the divisive conflict that might arise from declaring any kind of victor. Without the support of the government to bolster domestic security and secure military cooperation from Pakistan on the porous border, this fight will be much longer than 12-18 months. And, with McChrystal’s recommendation for 20,000 more troops to make it 68,000 American troops (and a little over 32,000 NATO troops) we are in it for the long haul. (NOTE: Vietnam troop levels capped at around 500,000.)
When returning from recess, the President is going to have a lot on his plate. And, the desire for the quick economic fix will not make any of his policies more palatable for the Republican opposition. The lingering 9 trillion dollar deficit forecast and the ever increasing, albeit slower, unemployment rate (9.8%) will make any spending bill a near impossibility. It has been a historical trend that during a depression, the more conservative, and sometimes nationalist, jingoistic element of the political scene shows itself. We are seeing an upsurge in opposition to Global Warming policy, government and Immigration policy. But, what is more alarming is that we are seeing an upsurge in gun acquisition, bullet purchase, anti-immigrant sentiment, racism and a return to a highly radicalized grassroots conservative movement. People are voicing an opposition to politics itself. I believe that there is a rift occurring in the country between the people and the government, and the lack of knowledge that is spoon-fed to the people puts them in odds with any agent of the government, even if that agent opposes big government. This is fueled by a “small town” mentality that was seen during the Great Depression. These protesters are getting the idea that they are victims of a heartless system that must be pacified. But as Andrew Carnegie once said “mutual ignorance breeds mutual distrust.”
My prediction is that if the Energy Bill and Healthcare fail, it will spell a political disaster for Obama, and will result in a drastic change of the guard in Congress. That will lead to an abandonment of the issue of Healthcare and Global Warming. This is why these bills are important to pass. If they are not passed between now and the midterm elections, the issues will never be fully addressed. And, the opposition will get its just desserts when Medicare dwindling causes the government to spend more to bolster it, and when Petroleum dwindles, the price skyrockets and energy because infinitely more expensive. Petroleum is a very volatile market, just like Uranium, and if we see another upsurge of investment into commodities, those prices will shoot up, as Uranium has in the last 3 years. The fault is not in their ideology, it’s in their inability to compromise. And, this goes for both sides.
It’s with great consternation that I write…Gosh, I wish Teddy was around.
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